Most market commentary in late 2024 and 2025 suggested platinum prices had a reasonable chance of rising in 2026, but the outlook was conditional and mixed: some analysts expected prices to move higher if supply deficits persisted or ETF/industrial demand recovered, while others forecast only modest gains or a wide trading range depending on recycling, automotive demand and geopolitics[4][5].[6]
Why analysts thought prices could rise in 2026
– Structural deficits through 2024–2025 supported a higher-price narrative because sustained deficits tend to draw down above-ground stocks and put upward pressure on prices[2][5].[6]
– Forecasts from some private forecasters projected higher nominal targets for 2026, with wide ranges reflecting uncertainty; one aggregator showed mid-2026 to end-2026 targets in the roughly $1,700 to $2,300 per ounce area in some scenarios[1].
– Supply-side constraints such as lower mining output in recent years and only gradual increases in output and recycling can tighten physical availability and support prices if demand holds up[2].
– Investor flows, especially into ETFs or out of them, can amplify price moves quickly; analysts flagged that a reduction in tariff-related uncertainty and profit-taking could swing investment demand and therefore price direction in 2026[2].
Factors that could limit or reverse price gains
– Several forecasts expected the market to move toward balance or a small surplus in 2026 if recycling and mining supply increase and investment demand cools, which would reduce upward pressure on prices[2][4].
– Automotive demand is a key wildcard: the shift from internal combustion engine vehicles to battery electric vehicles can reduce long-term automotive platinum demand, moderating price gains if EV adoption accelerates faster than some models expect[4].
– Macro and geopolitical risks, including trade tensions, interest rate changes and stronger US dollar, can reduce commodity investment flows and weigh on precious metal prices[2][5].
How to read the differing forecasts
– Professional industry reports (for example from WPIC and mining-sector commentary) emphasized supply and demand balances and the conditional nature of a 2026 rebound, often saying a balanced market in 2026 would not automatically restore above-ground inventories that had been drawn down[2][6].
– Commercial forecasters and retail-oriented price-forecast sites produced a wide span of numeric targets, some quite bullish and others modest, reflecting different model assumptions about demand elasticities, recycling and investor flows[1][4].
Practical implications for investors and users of platinum
– Expect volatility: forecasts differ widely and analysts repeatedly note that short-term ETF flows and changing autocatalyst demand can cause sharp moves[5].
– Monitor three things closely: physical supply and recycling statistics, auto-industry trends for catalyst loadings and EV penetration, and ETF/warehouse inventories and flows; changes in these variables were highlighted by multiple sources as the main drivers of 2026 price direction[2][4][5].
– Treat single-point price targets with caution: the range of credible outcomes for 2026 was broad in public forecasts, so use scenario planning rather than relying on one firm projection[1][4].
Sources
https://www.litefinance.org/blog/analysts-opinions/platinum-price-prediction-and-forecast/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dUhdNi5Pb0k
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OyWhTZoofWs
https://www.heraeus-precious-metals.com/en/company/press-and-news/heraeus-precious-metals-forecast-2026/
https://investingnews.com/wpic-platinum-market-forecast/
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/balanced-2026-platinum-market-forecast-dependent-on-global-trade-tension-let-up-2025-11-18