Platinum is facing a serious supply shortage in 2025, and this could push its price up to $1,800 per ounce. Here’s why.
First, the platinum market has been running a big deficit for several years now. This means that demand for platinum is consistently higher than the amount being supplied. In 2023 and 2024, the shortfall was nearly a million ounces each year, and forecasts show that 2025 will see another huge deficit of around 900,000 ounces. When supply falls short like this over multiple years, it eats into existing stockpiles of platinum held above ground — these are reserves kept by investors or industries to balance out shortages. But those stocks are shrinking fast; by 2025 they’re expected to drop below three million ounces globally, which is dangerously low given how much platinum people want[2][5].
The main reason for this shortage is that mining output is falling sharply. Platinum mines are producing less metal due to various challenges such as operational issues and lower recycling rates of scrap platinum materials. For example, newly mined platinum production in 2025 is predicted to decline by about six percent compared to previous years — reversing recent growth trends[3][4]. Since mining supplies most of the world’s platinum, any drop here hits overall availability hard.
At the same time as supply tightens, demand keeps growing strongly—especially from China. Chinese investors have been buying more platinum bars and coins as an alternative investment when gold prices get too high or uncertain. Also driving demand are industrial uses like hybrid vehicle manufacturing where platinum plays a key role in catalytic converters that reduce emissions[1][5]. This combination of rising demand with falling supply creates intense pressure on prices.
Because these deficits aren’t just temporary blips but structural problems rooted in fundamental market forces—like declining mine output and sustained strong demand—the market cannot easily correct itself without price changes forcing new behaviors[2]. If inventories run out within just a few years at current deficit levels (which experts warn could happen), prices will need to rise dramatically so producers can justify expanding mining operations or recycling efforts can increase enough.
Currently in mid-2025 we’ve already seen prices climb about one-third higher year-to-date amid all these factors[1]. Many analysts believe this upward trend will continue sharply if deficits persist through late 2020s because there simply isn’t enough metal available at current price levels.
Putting it all together: The ongoing large supply deficits caused by declining mine production combined with surging Chinese investment interest mean that unless something changes drastically soon—like new mines opening or major technological breakthroughs lowering costs—platinum’s price could soar toward $1,800 an ounce over the next few years as markets scramble to rebalance themselves under tight conditions[2][5].
This makes investing in or holding physical platinum potentially very rewarding but also risky if sudden shifts occur elsewhere affecting global economic growth or trade patterns impacting demand unexpectedly.
In essence: Platinum’s deepening shortage paired with strong buyer appetite sets up a perfect storm pushing its value much higher than today’s levels before long.