Platinum is facing a serious supply shortage in 2025, and this could push its price above $1,400 per ounce. The main reason for this is a growing gap between how much platinum is produced and how much people want to buy.
For the third year in a row, platinum supply has not been able to keep up with demand. In 2024, there was nearly a one million-ounce shortfall, and forecasts show that 2025 will see almost the same deficit again. This means that more platinum is being used than mined or recycled each year. Because of this ongoing shortage, the amount of platinum stored above ground—like in warehouses or held by investors—is shrinking fast. By 2025, these stocks are expected to drop to just about 2.5 million ounces, which only covers around four months of global demand at current rates.
This situation is called a “structural deficit,” meaning it’s not just a temporary problem but an ongoing imbalance caused by fundamental factors like declining mine production and steady or rising demand. South Africa’s mining output—the largest source of new platinum—is expected to fall by about 6% in 2025 due to operational challenges and lower recycling rates worldwide also contribute less metal back into circulation.
On the other side of the equation, demand for platinum is increasing strongly in some key areas. One big driver is China: imports there have surged dramatically as investors look for alternatives amid high gold prices by buying more bars, coins, and jewelry made from platinum. Additionally, industries such as automotive manufacturing continue using more platinum for catalytic converters in hybrid vehicles because it helps reduce emissions.
When supply keeps falling short while demand grows or stays firm like this over several years straight, inventories get drained quickly until they reach critically low levels—or even run out entirely if nothing changes soon. When that happens with any commodity like platinum that people rely on heavily both industrially and as an investment asset—it usually causes prices to spike sharply higher because buyers compete fiercely for limited metal available on the market.
Given these facts—a persistent multi-year supply deficit combined with rising Chinese investor interest plus steady industrial use—platinum’s price looks set for significant gains through 2025 and beyond. Prices already climbed over 20% earlier this year reaching near $1,100 per ounce; if deficits continue as forecasted without new sources coming online soon enough then crossing $1,400 seems quite possible as markets adjust toward balance under tighter conditions.
In essence: Platinum’s tight supply situation paired with strong demand trends creates powerful upward pressure on prices heading into late 2025—and likely well beyond unless mining output improves substantially or recycling picks up significantly faster than expected—which currently appears unlikely given existing data trends worldwide.