# What Will Netflix Be Worth in 2030?
Netflix’s future value in 2030 depends heavily on which analyst you ask, with predictions ranging from extremely optimistic to quite pessimistic. The company itself has set ambitious goals, but Wall Street experts offer varying perspectives on whether those targets are realistic.
## Netflix’s Own Ambitious Goals
Netflix has publicly stated it wants to reach a market capitalization of $1 trillion by 2030, which would roughly double its current market cap of around $500 billion[1]. To achieve this, the company is planning major changes to how it makes money and grows its business.
The streaming giant aims to double its total revenue to $80 billion by 2030, up from current levels[1]. It also wants to triple its operating income to around $30 billion[1]. These are substantial increases that would require Netflix to execute flawlessly across multiple business areas.
A key part of Netflix’s growth strategy involves its advertising business. The company launched its advertising tier in 2023 and wants this to generate around $9 billion in global ad sales by 2030, compared to an estimated $2 billion currently[1]. This represents nearly a five-fold increase in advertising revenue in just five years.
To support this revenue growth, Netflix plans to expand its subscriber base from 300 million at the end of 2024 to 410 million by 2030[1]. This would represent about 37% growth in total subscribers. However, analysts note that this subscriber growth alone would only lead to about 30% revenue growth if prices stayed the same[1]. This means Netflix will need to raise subscription prices while simultaneously growing its advertising business to hit its revenue targets[1].
## What Stock Price Predictions Say
Stock analysts have created numerous price predictions for Netflix shares by 2030, and the range is quite wide. This variation reflects the uncertainty about whether Netflix can execute its ambitious plans.
According to StockScan, Netflix stock will likely trade at $708.49 by 2030[2]. However, this is just one estimate among many. WalletInvestor offers a much more bullish outlook, expecting Netflix stock to reach $1,814.01 by the end of November 2030[2]. Other analysts predict more modest growth, with some forecasting prices around $777.03 by 2030[2].
The 24/7 Wall St. analysis provides a middle-ground estimate. This firm projects Netflix stock will reach $222.30 per share by 2030[3]. Their analysis assumes Netflix will maintain a market-leading position while offering gaming options and live events alongside its core streaming service[3].
The wide range in these predictions reflects different assumptions about Netflix’s ability to grow advertising revenue, maintain subscriber growth in mature markets, and continue raising prices without losing customers[2].
## The Advertising Revenue Opportunity
One of the biggest wildcards in Netflix’s 2030 valuation is how successful its advertising business becomes. The company was late to add advertising compared to competitors, launching its ad-supported tier in 2023[1]. However, analysts believe this could be a major growth driver.
Netflix expects advertising revenue to grow from about $2 billion currently to $9 billion by 2030[1]. This would make advertising a significant portion of total revenue. The advertising tier has already proven popular, driving new sign-ups for the service[1].
As the advertising business scales, Netflix benefits from a favorable economics situation. The company can generate additional revenue from advertising without proportionally increasing its content costs, since the same shows and movies serve both ad-supported and ad-free subscribers[5]. This creates what analysts call margin expansion, where profits grow faster than revenue[5].
Analysts forecast that Netflix’s operating margins could reach 34% as the advertising business scales[5]. This would be among the highest margins in the media industry and would significantly boost profitability and stock value.
## Subscriber Growth Challenges and Opportunities
Netflix’s plan to grow from 300 million to 410 million subscribers by 2030 faces both opportunities and challenges. The company has already achieved massive scale, making it the largest pure-play premium video streamer in the world[1].
The global population is 8 billion people, and internet usage continues to grow every year, providing a large addressable market[1]. Netflix has invested in producing content specifically for markets like Europe, Latin America, South Korea, and India, which has helped it reach its current subscriber levels[1].
However, in mature markets like North America and Europe, subscriber growth is slowing. This means Netflix will need to continue finding growth in emerging markets while also relying on price increases and advertising revenue to hit its financial targets[3].
## The Warner Bros. Discovery Acquisition Factor
In December 2024, Netflix shocked investors by announcing plans to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery for an enterprise value of $82.7 billion[4]. This deal would significantly impact Netflix’s value by 2030.
The acquisition would give Netflix access to HBO and HBO Max programming, along with well-known television and film franchises[4]. It would also boost Netflix’s original content creation capabilities[4]. The deal provides Netflix with more options when allocating its content budget[4].
Netflix has been expanding into live events, including securing rights to air NFL games on Christmas[4]. The Warner Bros. acquisition would further expand Netflix’s content breadth and appeal to different audience segments.
## Different Scenarios for 2030
Analysts have created different scenarios for Netflix’s stock performance through 2030 based on various assumptions about content success and advertising adoption.
In a low case scenario, if competition intensifies and engagement growth slows, Netflix stock could deliver around 11% annual returns[5]. This would represent a more modest outcome where the company faces headwinds from competitors and struggles to maintain user engagement.
In a mid case scenario, with steady content momentum and successful advertising scaling, Netflix stock could deliver around 17% annual returns[5]. This represents a baseline expectation where Netflix executes reasonably well on its plans.
In a high case scenario, with accelerated cultural hits and stronger advertising adoption, Netflix stock could deliver around 23% annual returns[5]. This would represent Netflix exceeding expectations and becoming even more dominant in the streaming industry.
## The Valuation Multiple Question
One important factor in determining Netflix’s 2030 value is what price-to-earnings multiple investors will pay for the stock. Netflix currently trades at a P/E ratio of around 40, which is in line with its five-year average[3].
If Netflix maintains this P/E multiple while growing earnings as analysts expect, the stock could reach $189.44 by 2029 and $222.30 by 2030[3]. However, if the market becomes more skeptical about Netflix’s growth prospects, the P/E multiple could compress, leading to lower stock prices even if earnings grow.
Conversely, if