Higher industrial demand, a shrinking above-ground supply from low recycling and mine disruptions, and renewed investor interest could push platinum prices higher in 2026. WPIC and market commentators point to a fragile supply deficit turning toward balance in 2026, but that balance could be upset if demand for autocatalysts, recovery of jewelry and industrial use, or investment flows increase faster than expected[2][5].
Context and how these factors could lift platinum
– Supply tightness from mining and recycling constraints can support prices. WPIC reported a large platinum deficit in 2025 and expects only a near-balanced market in 2026, meaning any further reduction in mined output or weaker recycling would remove buffer ounces and push prices up[2]. InvestingNews quoted WPIC saying the 2025 deficit and narrow margin into 2026 increase the likelihood of a positive price breakout, though not guaranteed[5].
– Automotive demand for catalytic converters remains a key swing factor. Platinum is used in gasoline and diesel three-way and diesel oxidation catalysts; if internal combustion engine vehicle production holds up or if stricter emissions rules increase loadings, industrial demand could rise and tighten the market further[2][5].
– Jewelry demand and regional shifts can add incremental demand. Heraeus highlights that platinum is still substantially discounted to gold and could attract jewelry substitution—especially in large markets like China—providing upside to physical demand if consumer preferences shift[4].
– ETF and investor flows can amplify price moves. WPIC and analysts note that non-bar and coin investment demand and ETF stock changes contributed materially to recent swings; renewed investor appetite or profit-taking patterns can quickly change available stocks and price direction[2][5].
– Lease rates and market structure effects. Elevated lease rates and changes in leasing and lending conditions for platinum affect physical availability for industrial users; tighter lease markets can raise effective demand and support prices, as discussed in market forecasts[4].
– Geopolitical and trade factors. WPIC and Mining Weekly emphasize that trade tensions and related investment flows materially worsened the 2025 deficit; a reversal of these tensions could either reduce volatility or, if tensions persist or escalate in supply regions, further constrain supply and push prices higher[2][6].
Market forecasts and differing views
– Some forecasting services project notable upside into 2026; aggregated analyst forecasts vary widely, with optimistic scenarios projecting substantial gains while conservative models see more modest increases[1].
– Heraeus gives a 2026 platinum range of about $1,300 to $1,800 per ounce while noting the market may remain in structural deficit that could narrow with recycling increases[4].
– WPIC’s view is that 2026 could be broadly balanced (a roughly 20,000 ounce surplus on their numbers), but they warn that balance does not rebuild above-ground stocks, leaving the market vulnerable to price moves if demand re-accelerates or supply unexpectedly falls[2][5].
Practical indicators to watch in 2026
– Mining output and reported production cuts or strikes in major producing regions.
– Recycling volumes and secondary supply data from major recyclers and refineries.
– Automotive production trends, emissions regulation changes, and catalyst loadings per vehicle.
– ETF holdings and warehouse stock movements that reflect investor positioning.
– Lease rates and physical market spreads reported by industry players.
– Trade-policy developments affecting demand or investor flows.
Sources
https://www.litefinance.org/blog/analysts-opinions/platinum-price-prediction-and-forecast/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dUhdNi5Pb0k
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OyWhTZoofWs
https://www.heraeus-precious-metals.com/en/company/press-and-news/heraeus-precious-metals-forecast-2026/
https://investingnews.com/wpic-platinum-market-forecast/
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/balanced-2026-platinum-market-forecast-dependent-on-global-trade-tension-let-up-2025-11-18