Platinum prices swing based on supply shortages, demand from cars and investors, and global events like mining problems in South Africa. The biggest driver right now is a mismatch where demand outpaces supply, creating deficits that push prices up. For example, the World Platinum Investment Council forecasts a 692,000 ounce deficit for 2025, or about 9% of yearly demand, as mine output drops 5% while recycling rises but not enough to cover ithttps://platinuminvestment.com/files/954835/WPIC_Platinum_Quarterly_Q3_2025.pdf.
Supply comes mostly from mining in South Africa, which makes about 80% of the world’s platinum, and Russia for the rest. Issues like power cuts, labor costs, shaft closures, and low investment keep output low, down 5% in 2025 from 2024 and 10% below pre-pandemic averageshttps://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2025/12/15/platinums-impressive-ascent-could-continue-through-2026.htmlhttps://gerrardsbullion.com/invest/2026-platinum-predictions-will-tight-supply-keep-prices-high/. Recycling from old car parts adds some supply, up 7-8% lately, but it cannot fully offset mining declineshttps://platinuminvestment.com/files/954835/WPIC_Platinum_Quarterly_Q3_2025.pdf. Geopolitical risks, like sanctions on Russia, tighten things furtherhttps://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2025/12/15/platinums-impressive-ascent-could-continue-through-2026.html.
On the demand side, cars use the most platinum in catalytic converters to cut emissions. Stricter rules worldwide keep this steady, around 3 million ounces in 2025, even as electric vehicles slow down and more people buy hybrids or gas cars that need platinumhttps://investingnews.com/wpic-platinum-market-forecast/https://gerrardsbullion.com/invest/2026-platinum-predictions-will-tight-supply-keep-prices-high/. Investment demand spiked 77% in 2024 with ETF inflows and bar buys, adding 360,000 ounces in Q4 alone, but it may ease in 2025-2026 as prices rise and stocks flow outhttps://investingnews.com/wpic-platinum-market-forecast/https://platinuminvestment.com/files/954835/WPIC_Platinum_Quarterly_Q3_2025.pdf. Industrial uses like glass and hydrogen fuel cells also matter, boosted by China’s new rules naming platinum a critical mineral and starting futures trading, which pulls in more importshttps://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2025/12/15/platinums-impressive-ascent-could-continue-through-2026.html.
Trade tensions and tariffs play a role too. Easing fears could lead to outflows from exchange stocks, balancing the market toward a small 20,000 ounce surplus in 2026, but tight lease rates show ongoing shortageshttps://www.ipmi.org/news/balanced-2026-platinum-market-forecast-dependent-trade-tension-lethttps://platinuminvestment.com/files/954835/WPIC_Platinum_Quarterly_Q3_2025.pdf. Bigger macro factors like U.S. dollar strength, interest rates, and EV shifts can swing prices, but the core deficit from supply constraints keeps upward pressurehttps://gerrardsbullion.com/invest/2026-platinum-predictions-will-tight-supply-keep-prices-high/.
Sources
https://platinuminvestment.com/files/954835/WPIC_Platinum_Quarterly_Q3_2025.pdf
https://investingnews.com/wpic-platinum-market-forecast/
https://www.ipm