Platinum and palladium are both rare, valuable metals used in industry and jewelry, but their prices move differently because of supply, demand and market structure; in 2024–2025 platinum regained strength on tighter supply and rising investor interest while palladium recovered from its earlier slump but remains tied closely to autocatalyst demand and possible oversupply from recycling and Russian supply normalization[3][5][6]. [4]
Platinum basics and price drivers
– Industrial and investment uses: Platinum is used in autocatalysts (especially diesel vehicles), jewelry, chemical catalysts and some industrial processes; it is also held by investors via ETFs and coins, which can amplify price moves when sentiment shifts[3][7]. [3] [7]
– Supply side: Most mined platinum comes from South Africa and Russia, so mine production hiccups, labor issues or geopolitical moves quickly affect supply and price[3]. [3]
– Demand side: Demand rose in 2025 from both jewelry in markets like China and substitution by automakers (using platinum instead of palladium in gasoline autocatalysts), boosting prices that year[3][8]. [3] [8]
– Market features: Platinum has smaller and more concentrated physical and ETF markets than gold or silver, which can make price swings larger when flows change[3]. [3]
Palladium basics and price drivers
– Industrial focus: Palladium’s main use is in autocatalysts for gasoline engines, giving it high sensitivity to automotive production, emissions regulations and the gasoline/diesel vehicle mix[6]. [6]
– Supply and recycling: Palladium supply includes mined output, recycling from spent catalytic converters, and material from Russia; increases in recycling and easing supply constraints contributed to weaker palladium prices in prior years, though 2025 saw a rebound as conditions shifted[1][6]. [1] [6]
– Market structure: Palladium historically traded at sizable premiums to platinum when gasoline-vehicle demand soared, but that gap narrowed and sometimes reversed as substitution and supply changes occurred[1][5]. [1] [5]
Recent comparative price behavior (2024–2025)
– Price direction: Platinum rose strongly in 2025—double digit gains in some quarters—driven by a market deficit, stronger Chinese jewelry demand and substitution in autocatalysts; Q3 2025 saw a 16 percent rise in platinum prices according to industry reports[3][5]. [3] [5]
– Palladium rebound: After multi-year declines, palladium stabilized and rose through 2024 and 2025, but analysts note the market may still face surplus risk depending on recycling and automotive demand, making palladium’s outlook more uncertain than platinum’s[1][6][7]. [1] [6] [7]
– Relative levels: By mid–December 2025 spot platinum prints were generally above palladium in some benchmarks (for example one market snapshot showed platinum ~USD 1,922/oz and palladium ~USD 1,685/oz), reflecting the fast platinum rally in late 2025[4][5]. [4] [5]
Why the two metals can diverge
– End use concentration: Palladium is more concentrated in gasoline autocatalysts; platinum’s demand is more diversified across diesel autocatalysts, jewelry and industrial uses, so shocks to a single end market affect palladium more severely[6][3]. [6] [3]
– Substitution effects: Automakers can substitute platinum for palladium in some catalyst designs; when platinum is cheaper or more available, substitution reduces palladium demand and narrows the price gap[8][1]. [8] [1]
– Recycling and secondary supply: Palladium is more readily sourced from recycled converters; higher recycling volumes can cap price upside. Platinum recycling also matters but supply-side changes in major producing countries weigh more heavily on platinum[6][3]. [6] [3]
How analysts view the near term (examples)
– Optimistic platinum forecasts point to continued gains if deficits persist and investor demand for precious metals stays strong, with several market commentators and forecasters raising near-term targets in 2025 and 2026[2][7]. [2] [7]
– Palladium forecasts are mixed; some models project recovery toward pre‑slump levels if automotive demand accelerates, while others warn that recycling and easing supply could keep prices capped[1][6][7]. [1] [6] [7]
What this means for investors or buyers
– Volatility risk: Both metals can be volatile; platinum’s concentrated supply and palladium’s concentrated demand profile mean both can swing sharply on industry news or geopolitical events[3][6]. [3] [6]
– Diversification and use case: Investors seeking exposure to automotive metal dynamics should note palladium’s stronger tie to gasoline vehicle demand, while those wanting broader industrial and jewelry demand exposure may prefer platinum[6][3]. [6] [3]
– Liquidity and market access: Platinum markets can be smaller and less liquid than gold, and palladium liquidity can vary; choose trading venues and instruments (spot, futures, ETFs) carefully and factor in transaction costs and storage for physical holdings[3]. [3]
Sources
https://platinuminvestment.com/files/954835/WPIC_Platinum_Quarterly_Q3_2025.pdf
https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/infographics/ai-gold-precious-metal-price-forecasts
https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/gold-price-news/platinum-gfex-palladium-121720251
https://fortune.com/article/current-price-of-platinum-12-17-2025/
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/palladium
https://www.heraeus-precious-metals.com/en/company/press-and-news/heraeus-precious-metals-forecast-2026/