Platinum has been making waves in the metals market this year, with prices climbing steadily and sparking excitement among investors and industry watchers alike. The big question on many minds is whether this bull market will keep charging ahead.
One of the main reasons platinum is shining right now is a persistent supply shortage. For three years running, there’s been more demand than supply, creating a tight market. This year alone, experts expect a deficit close to 850,000 ounces. Mining output has dropped, especially in South Africa—the world’s largest producer—and recycling rates are down too. As a result, the total amount of platinum available globally is shrinking to its lowest level in five years.
At the same time, stockpiles that once cushioned shortages are being drawn down rapidly. These reserves have fallen by about 25%, leaving less than four months’ worth of global demand sitting above ground. If mining doesn’t pick up or new sources aren’t found soon, these stocks could run dry within a couple of years.
On the demand side, China is playing an increasingly important role. Chinese investors have boosted their platinum imports sharply—by nearly half from one month to the next recently—buying bars, coins, and jewelry as alternatives to gold which has become quite expensive there. In fact, while gold jewelry sales dropped significantly in China due to high prices earlier this year, platinum jewelry sales rose by over 25%. This shift highlights how investor preferences can drive metal markets beyond traditional industrial uses.
Looking ahead through 2025 and beyond paints an optimistic picture for platinum prices if current trends hold up. Some forecasts suggest prices could climb above $1,100 per ounce this year and even reach $1,400 or more by mid-2025 as deficits deepen and demand stays strong.
Longer term projections are even more bullish: over the next five years or so some analysts predict platinum could double from today’s levels thanks to ongoing supply constraints combined with growing industrial use—especially in hybrid vehicles where platinum plays a key role—and sustained investment interest worldwide.
That said though it’s not all guaranteed smooth sailing; price swings remain possible if mining recovers faster than expected or if investor enthusiasm cools off suddenly. But for now at least—the fundamentals seem firmly tilted toward higher prices with tightening supplies meeting rising global appetite.
So yes: it looks like platinum’s bull run still has legs for now — driven by shrinking supplies underground coupled with surging interest above ground — making it one of the most exciting metals markets to watch closely going forward into 2025 and beyond.