Platinum Forecast for 2026
Platinum is likely to move from a large deficit in 2025 toward a broadly balanced market in 2026, with price outcomes depending on recycling, mining output, ETF flows, and global trade conditions[2][6]. WPIC’s outlook sees the market shifting to near balance as higher recycling and slightly stronger mining supply meet somewhat weaker demand, notably from investment flows that pulled stocks lower in 2025[2][6]. Long-term price forecasts from some analysts are more bullish, but estimates vary widely[1].
Why the market may balance in 2026
– Recycling and secondary supply are expected to rise, adding several hundred thousand ounces to available metal and helping close the 2025 shortfall[2][4].
– Mining production is forecast to increase modestly in 2026, adding further supply after mining output fell in 2025[2].
– Investment demand (including ETF holdings and non-bar/coin flows) is expected to ease after heavy buying tied to trade and tariff uncertainty, which contributed to the 2025 deficit[2][5].
– Automotive demand could soften as battery electric vehicles gain share, but jewelry and industrial uses may partially offset that decline, leaving overall demand trends mixed[4][5].
Price outlook and scenarios
– Analysts and forecasting services offer a wide range of price scenarios for 2026, reflecting uncertainty in supply/demand balances and investor behavior[1][4].
– Some model-based forecasts (LongForecast and others) show platinum rising toward roughly the low-to-mid thousands of dollars per ounce by 2026 in bullish scenarios, while more conservative estimates keep prices in a lower band[1].
– Heraeus projects a 2026 platinum range of about $1,300 to $1,800 per ounce, noting the market may remain in deficit though the shortfall is likely to narrow[4].
– WPIC and other market commentators emphasize that a broadly balanced market does not mean a rapid rebuild of above-ground stocks; therefore, modest upside remains possible if demand surprises to the upside or supply disruptions occur[2][5].
Key drivers to watch
– Recycling volumes: faster recycling in Europe and elsewhere is a central factor that could materially increase supply in 2026[2][4].
– Mining output: small percentage increases in mine production will matter because the market was tight in 2025; any mine disruptions would quickly tighten balances again[2].
– ETF and investor flows: profit taking or liquidation by ETFs that built positions during the deficit could reduce investment demand and weigh on price, while renewed buying would support price[2][5].
– Global trade tensions and tariffs: easing of trade friction was cited as a condition for the WPIC balanced-market forecast; renewed tensions could push investors back into platinum as a trade-uncertainty hedge[2][6].
– Auto sector mix: the pace of EV adoption versus continued use of gasoline and diesel engines (which use platinum in catalytic converters) will affect industrial demand over the medium term[4].
Practical implications for investors and industry
– For investors, the 2026 outlook is nuanced: a move toward balance reduces the immediate pressure from a large physical deficit, but the lack of rebuilt stocks means price sensitivity to shocks remains high[2][5].
– For miners and recyclers, higher recycling economics and steady mine output can ease the market and stabilize supply chains[2][4].
– For industrial consumers and jewelers, a narrower deficit and potentially lower lease rates could improve metal availability and cost predictability[4].
Uncertainties and risks
– Forecasts diverge because small changes in supply or demand have outsized effects when inventories are low; model-based price targets therefore vary considerably across forecasters[1].
– Geopolitical events, unexpected mine outages, or faster-than-expected shifts in automotive technology could move the market away from the balance scenario[2][6].
– Short-term investor behavior—especially ETF flows—can create volatility independent of the physical market balance[5].
Sources
https://www.litefinance.org/blog/analysts-opinions/platinum-price-prediction-and-forecast/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dUhdNi5Pb0k
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OyWhTZoofWs
https://www.heraeus-precious-metals.com/en/company/press-and-news/heraeus-precious-metals-forecast-2026/
https://investingnews.com/wpic-platinum-market-forecast/
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/balanced-2026-platinum-market-forecast-dependent-on-global-trade-tension-let-up-2025-11-18