Platinum demand over the next decade will be shaped by three main scenarios—baseline transition growth, accelerated green-hydrogen and fuel-cell adoption, and substitution plus recycling limiting growth—with each path driven by vehicle electrification choices, hydrogen policy, industrial use trends, and supply constraints.
Context and drivers
– Automotive catalysts remain a large historical demand source for platinum, but future demand depends on whether internal combustion engines with three-way and diesel catalytic converters retain market share or give way to battery electric vehicles; shifts toward battery electric vehicles reduce platinum demand in light-duty transport while fuel-cell electric vehicles raise demand for platinum-based catalysts in hydrogen systems[3][4].
– Hydrogen and fuel-cell technologies are a critical upside for platinum because platinum is the dominant catalyst in many fuel cells; market studies project growth in fuel-cell catalyst demand and expect platinum-based catalysts to retain the majority share of that market through the 2030s[3][4].
– Industrial and jewelry use provide steady baseline consumption; jewelry demand tends to follow price and consumer preferences, while industrial applications (chemical processing, glass fiber, electronics) are comparatively price-insensitive but smaller in volume.
– Supply-side constraints matter: mining production, reinvestment levels at mines, and limited short-term recycling elasticity can create tightness that raises prices and changes substitution incentives[5]. National critical-minerals strategies and investment needs for low-carbon technologies also influence long-term supply and demand balances for platinum and related critical minerals[2][6].
Scenario 1 — Baseline transition growth (moderate demand increase)
– Description: Gradual global decarbonization with continued BEV growth but meaningful penetration of hydrogen and stationary fuel cells in commercial, industrial, and some transport niches. Recycling improves slowly; platinum prices moderate.
– Demand outlook: Overall platinum demand rises modestly as declines in automotive demand from BEVs are partially offset by growing fuel-cell and industrial demand and steady jewelry consumption[3]. Regional forecasts show rising consumption in markets investing in hydrogen and heavy transport decarbonization[1].
– Key assumptions: Fuel-cell deployments scale at rates consistent with current policy commitments; platinum loadings per fuel cell fall slowly due to incremental material-efficiency improvements; recycling rates rise but do not fully offset primary demand.
– Implications: Mining and refining keep pace with modest demand growth; prices may trend upward if investment in mine capacity remains limited[5].
Scenario 2 — Accelerated hydrogen and fuel-cell adoption (strong demand growth)
– Description: Aggressive policy support, falling electrolyser and fuel-cell costs, and infrastructure build-out push hydrogen and fuel-cell systems into heavy-duty transport, maritime, long-haul freight, and significant stationary power roles. Platinum is central to many PEM fuel-cell catalysts.
– Demand outlook: Platinum demand increases materially as fuel-cell catalyst demand expands in transportation and stationary markets; some studies forecast double-digit CAGR for fuel-cell catalyst markets over multi-year horizons, with platinum-based catalysts maintaining a leading share[3][4].
– Key assumptions: Rapid cost declines for electrolysers and PEM fuel cells, large-scale green-hydrogen deployment, and slow-to-moderate adoption of non-platinum catalysts (NPMC) in commercial applications.
– Implications: Strong upward pressure on platinum prices if primary supply and recycling cannot scale quickly; incentive for ramping mining projects and accelerating recycling infrastructure; manufacturers prioritize lowering platinum loading but still require significant PGM volumes in aggregate[4][7].
Scenario 3 — Substitution and circular economy (flat or declining primary demand)
– Description: Breakthroughs in non-platinum catalysts, major reductions in platinum loading, and aggressive circular-economy measures (recycling from end-of-life vehicles and industrial catalysts) reduce reliance on newly mined platinum. At the same time, BEV dominance suppresses automotive catalytic demand.
– Demand outlook: Primary demand growth stalls or falls; recycled platinum supplies take a larger share of total supply, and industrial demand stabilizes. Some niche increases from stationary fuel cells are offset by substitution in transport and industry.
– Key assumptions: NPMC technologies prove durable, cost-effective, and scalable; policymakers and OEMs prioritize material-criticality reduction; recycling systems and policies are widely implemented.
– Implications: Lowered long-term price trajectory, reduced incentive for new mining investment, and stronger focus on scrap collection and downstream refining capacity to recover PGMs[4][6].
Cross-cutting factors that will determine which scenario plays out
– Vehicle electrification mix: the balance between BEVs, hybridization, and fuel-cell vehicles in commercial and heavy transport markets directly alters automotive platinum demand[3][4].
– Policy and infrastructure: hydrogen strategies, subsidies, and infrastructure deployment accelerate or retard fuel-cell adoption and thus platinum use[2][7].
– Technology progress: reductions in platinum loading for catalysts and advances in non-platinum alternatives change material intensity per application[4].
– Recycling and secondary supply: improvements in collection rates and refining of end-of-life catalysts can materially reduce primary demand needs, but recycling scale-up takes time and investment[5][4].
– Mine investment and geopolitical supply risks: limited reinvestment at mines and concentration of supply can produce tight markets and price spikes that feed back into substitution and recycling incentives[5][6].
Practical implications for stakeholders
– Miners and refiners should evaluate staged capacity expansions and invest in downstream recycling and refining to capture higher-margin secondary supply[5].
– OEMs and catalyst makers should pursue parallel strategies: reduce platinum loading, test and prepare for non-platinum options, and secure long-term PGM supply agreements if fuel-cell pathways expand[4].
– Policymakers aiming to support hydrogen ecosystems should factor in critical-metal supply chains and recycling targets to avoid bottlenecks[2][7].
– Investors must watch indicators such as fuel-cell deployment rates, electrolyser capacity build-out, mine reinvestment patterns, and recycling policy adoption to anticipate which demand scenario is unfolding.
Sources
https://www.indexbox.io/blog/platinum-northern-america-market-overview-2024-4/
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-critical-minerals-strategy/vision-2035-critical-minerals-strategy
https://www.factmr.com/report/united-states-fuel-cell-catalyst
https://www.openpr.com/news/4317183/executive-report-future-of-the-global-fuel-cell-catalyst-in-usa