The platinum market in 2025 is facing a significant supply deficit, continuing a trend seen over the past few years but with some notable differences in scale and impact. This year’s shortfall is part of a structural deficit that has been deepening since 2023, making it one of the most challenging periods for platinum supply in recent history.
In 2025, the platinum supply deficit is projected to be around 966,000 ounces. This follows deficits of approximately 896,000 ounces in 2023 and nearly one million ounces in 2024. These consecutive years of undersupply highlight an ongoing imbalance where demand consistently outpaces what mining and recycling can provide. Such persistent deficits are unusual because they steadily deplete above-ground stocks rather than being temporary mismatches between supply and demand[2].
Compared to previous years before this period, these deficits are much larger and more sustained. Earlier deficits were often smaller or offset by higher stock levels or increased recycling rates. However, from about 2019 onwards, mining output has declined due to factors like reduced production from South African mines—the world’s largest source—and lower recycling volumes globally[1][5]. In fact, total platinum supply for 2025 is expected to fall below seven million ounces for the first time in five years.
This shrinking supply combined with steady or growing demand—especially from sectors like automotive (for catalytic converters) and investment markets such as China—has pushed inventories down sharply. Above-ground stocks are forecasted to drop by about a quarter this year alone to roughly two and a half million ounces. To put that into perspective, this amount covers less than four months of global consumption at current rates[2][5].
The severity of this situation means that if these structural deficits continue at similar levels beyond 2025 without new sources coming online or demand easing significantly, global platinum inventories could be exhausted within three years. That would force prices upward sharply as buyers compete for limited supplies—a scenario quite different from past shorter-term shortages which were often resolved before reaching critical lows[2].
In summary:
– The size of the annual platinum deficit in recent years (around nine hundred thousand ounces) far exceeds typical shortfalls seen earlier.
– Supply reductions driven mainly by declining mine output have intensified since around 2019.
– Recycling rates have not compensated enough for falling mine production.
– Inventories have been drawn down steadily over multiple years instead of replenished.
– Demand growth—particularly strong Chinese investment buying—is adding pressure on an already tight market.
This makes the current phase unique compared to past cycles where either supply was more stable or stockpiles buffered temporary gaps between production and consumption.
Overall, while previous decades saw fluctuations influenced by economic cycles or technological changes affecting demand temporarily, today’s situation reflects deeper structural shifts: constrained mining capacity meeting rising industrial use plus investor interest amid limited alternatives.
These dynamics explain why many analysts view the ongoing platinum shortage as embedded within fundamental market forces rather than transient disruptions—a key reason why prices have surged strongly through early-to-mid 2025 alongside growing concerns about future availability[4][5].