Yes. Several recent market reports and industry commentary say platinum could move from intermittent tightness to recurring shortages if current supply constraints and rising industrial and investment demand continue, though outcomes depend on factors such as South African mine performance, recycling, and shifts in automotive and green-energy use[1][2][4].
Why a shortage is possible
– Concentrated supply: South Africa supplies the large majority of mined platinum, so disruptions there have outsized impact on global availability[2][1].
– Mining limits and inventories: Analysts forecast lower mine output and note that producers cannot repeat a large drawdown of work‑in‑process inventories seen previously, which tightens physical supply[1][4].
– Rising demand pockets: Automotive demand (for catalytic converters), recovering industrial uses (chemicals, glass) and expanding green-energy applications such as hydrogen electrolysis and fuel cells increase structural demand for platinum[2][3].
– Growing investment interest: Higher prices and new trading instruments and classification changes have boosted investment demand for bars, coins and ETFs, which can pull metal out of the market quickly and increase an apparent deficit[2][1].
– Recycling is improving but limited: Recycling growth helps supply, but recent forecasts show recycling gains are unlikely to fully offset falling mine output in the near term[1].
Why a full blown, long term shortage is not certain
– Forecasts expect supply to recover somewhat and for the market to move closer to balance in 2026 if certain pressures ease[1][3][4].
– Price signals will prompt more recycling and can spur substitution or demand destruction in some industrial uses, moderating shortages[1][4].
– Electric vehicle adoption is a wildcard: faster EV uptake will reduce automotive platinum demand for gasoline and diesel catalysts, while slower EV penetration keeps that demand elevated; either path changes future tightness substantially[2][3].
Key variables to watch
– South African production trends and reliability, including electricity and labor issues[2][1].
– Inventories held by exchanges and refiners; large outflows or inflows quickly affect visible deficits or surpluses[1][4].
– Rates of recycling and secondary supply growth versus mine output declines[1].
– Adoption of platinum in hydrogen and green technologies, which could create a durable new source of demand[2].
– Price trajectories: sustained higher prices encourage mine investment and recycling but also may slow some industrial demand[1][5].
Practical implications
– For investors: tighter physical markets and rising investment flows can increase price volatility and the premium for physical metal; monitor inventory reports and producer guidance[1][5].
– For industrial users: potential rising input costs and supply risk argue for supply diversification, recycling programs, and evaluating substitutes where technically feasible.
– For policymakers: the concentration of production argues for strategies to encourage diversified mining, secure refinery capacity and support circular supply chains.
Sources
https://platinuminvestment.com/files/954835/WPIC_Platinum_Quarterly_Q3_2025.pdf
https://www.phoenixrefining.com/blog/russia-s-largest-palladium-producer-sees-platinum-deficit-this-year
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/balanced-2026-platinum-market-forecast-dependent-on-global-trade-tension-let-up-2025-11-18
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/platinum-market-to-end-2025-with-692-koz-deficit-potential-easing-of-tariff-fears-leads-to-a-more-balanced-platinum-market-in-2026-302619223.html
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/edward-sterck-platinum-deep-deficit-again-will-price-keep-rising-2026