Can platinum recycling meet demand? Short answer: recycling can meaningfully reduce supply gaps but is unlikely by itself to fully meet projected platinum demand in the near term; closing the structural deficit will require a mix of higher recycling, some mine supply recovery, and demand-side developments such as slower declines in automotive use or growth in hydrogen-related demand[1][4].
Context and key points
– Current market picture and deficit size: Multiple industry forecasts show the platinum market running a persistent deficit through 2025 and into 2026, with estimates ranging from roughly 692,000 to 850,000 ounces for 2025, indicating primary supply is constrained relative to demand[5][1]. This persistent shortfall is the baseline that recycling would need to help close[1][5].
– How much recycling can grow: Analysts expect recycling supply to increase in response to higher platinum prices and greater availability of end-of-life sources, with forecasts of recycling growth in the low double digits (for example, around a 10% increase projected for 2026 by some forecasters)[1][2]. Firms such as Heraeus also expect secondary supply to expand as recycling rates rise in regions like Europe[4].
– Limits to recycling as a sole solution: Recycling supply is constrained by physical and economic limits:
– Feedstock availability depends on the flow of end-of-life products that contain platinum (autocatalysts from scrapped ICE vehicles, jewelry, industrial catalysts, and electronic waste). The stock of available material increases gradually and is influenced by vehicle retirement rates and prior recycling activity[2][1].
– Recovery rates and processing capacity matter. Recycling yields vary by source and require specialized refining capacity and investment; these do not scale instantly even when prices rise[2][4].
– Price elasticity helps but does not eliminate deficits. Higher platinum prices improve recyclers’ margins and incentivize more collection and processing, but expected recycling growth (for example the modest increases cited for 2026) is insufficient on its own to offset the multi-hundred-thousand-ounce deficits reported for 2025[1][2][4].
– Role of other supply and demand factors:
– Mining supply is forecast to recover modestly but remains constrained by operational disruptions and capital limits, so primary supply gains are expected to be small in the near term[2][4].
– Demand is shifting. Automotive demand for platinum is under pressure from electrification, but hydrogen and fuel-cell applications could drive industrial demand growth—analysts highlight hydrogen electrolyzers and fuel-cell vehicles as potential strong growth areas for platinum use through 2030[1][3].
– Investment demand (coins, bars, ETFs) can fluctuate and influence the available market balance; some forecasts expect investment demand to strengthen, which absorbs supply rather than release it[1][2].
– Practical outlook: Short- to medium-term (1 to 3 years)
– Recycling will be an important and growing source of supply and is expected to narrow deficits partially, especially as higher prices make collection and processing more economical[1][2][4].
– However, the scale of expected recycling growth is relatively modest compared with the reported deficits; therefore recycling alone is unlikely to close the gap in the near term[1][5].
– Practical outlook: Longer term (through 2030)
– Recycling potential grows with time as more retired vehicles and industrial catalysts become available and as recycling infrastructure and technologies improve; combined with possible growth in hydrogen-related demand and incremental mine supply recovery, the market could move toward balance, but outcomes depend on multiple uncertain factors including EV adoption pace, hydrogen deployment, and investment flows[1][3][4].
What would help recycling scale faster
– Better collection systems for end-of-life catalysts and industrial wastes, including incentives and regulatory support.
– Investment in refining and recovery capacity and in technologies that raise recovery rates from complex materials.
– Policies or industry programs that channel more retired autocatalysts and other platinum-bearing wastes into formal recycling streams rather than informal or landfill disposal.
– Price signals and stable market access for recyclers to justify capital investment.
Sources
https://www.streetwisereports.com/article/2025/12/15/platinums-impressive-ascent-could-continue-through-2026.html
https://www.ipmi.org/news/balanced-2026-platinum-market-forecast-dependent-trade-tension-let
https://thormetalsgroup.com/resource/december-12-2025-why-a-structural-deficit-and-hydrogen-economy-could-boost-platinum/
https://www.heraeus-precious-metals.com/en/company/press-and-news/heraeus-precious-metals-forecast-2026/
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/platinum-market-to-end-2025-with-692-koz-deficit-potential-easing-of-tariff-fears-leads-to-a-more-balanced-platinum-market-in-2026-302619223.html