Platinum prices have been climbing in recent years, with many experts forecasting gains into 2026. But several factors could push prices lower instead. Here are the main risks that might send platinum down next year.
One big threat is a shift in supply and demand balance. Right now, the market faces deficits, like the nearly 700,000 ounces shortfall expected for 2025, as noted by the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) in their latest quarterly report. For more details, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dUhdNi5Pb0k. But WPIC predicts a balanced market in 2026, with supply rising 4% to 7.4 million ounces from more mining and recycling, while demand drops 6% to 7.385 million ounces. If supply grows even faster or demand falls more than expected, surplus could build and drag prices down.
Investment demand looks shaky too. The 2026 balance relies on a 540,000 ounce drop in non-bar and coin buying, as investors sell exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and draw down high warehouse stocks amid easing trade worries. Check the full WPIC outlook here: https://www.miningweekly.com/article/balanced-2026-platinum-market-forecast-dependent-on-global-trade-tension-let-up-2025-11-18. If trade tensions between major economies like the US and China do not ease, or if investors keep buying instead of selling, this could flip to support higher prices. But profit-taking by ETF holders might accelerate if platinum hits peaks around $2,000 or more.
Trade tensions play a key role overall. WPIC stresses that their balanced 2026 forecast depends on reduced global trade friction, which boosted this year’s deficit through investment flows. Persistent tariffs or new barriers could keep demand strong but also spark uncertainty, leading to volatile swings lower. Their research director, Edward Sterck, highlighted this in interviews, warning of downside risks to demand up to 97,000 ounces in worst cases. Read more at https://investingnews.com/wpic-platinum-market-forecast/.
Changes in auto demand could hurt too. Platinum goes into catalytic converters for diesel and hybrid cars. As battery electric vehicles (BEVs) take more market share, this demand might shrink, even if jewelry buying in places like China picks up as an alternative to gold. Heraeus Precious Metals forecasts platinum at $1,300 to $1,800 per ounce in 2026, citing narrower deficits from recycling but risks from weaker auto use. Their full forecast is available here: https://www.heraeus-precious-metals.com/en/company/press-and-news/heraeus-precious-metals-forecast-2026/.
A stronger US dollar poses another risk. Platinum prices often move opposite to the dollar. If the Federal Reserve tightens policy faster than expected, raising interest rates, the dollar could climb and make platinum costlier for buyers using other currencies. Some forecasts like Trading Economics see prices around $1,766 by quarter-end but note broader uncertainty. Details at https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/platinum.
Finally, broader economic slowdowns could cut industrial demand from glass, chemicals, and hydrogen tech. While supply stays tight from South African mines, any global recession might overwhelm that with weaker buying.
Sources
https://www.litefinance.org/blog/analysts-opinions/platinum-price-prediction-and-forecast/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dUhdNi5Pb0k
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OyWhTZoofWs
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/platinum-price-forecast-gold-rotation-fuels-platinum-breakout-toward-2300-by-2026-1567402
https://www.heraeus-precious-metals.com/en/company/press-and-news/heraeus-precious-metals-forecast-2026/
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/platinum
https://investingnews.com/wpic-platinum-market-forecast/
https://www.miningweekly.com/article/balanced-2026-platinum-market-forecast-dependent-on-global-trade-tension-let-up-2025-11-18