Should I Hold or Sell Platinum?
Platinum prices have climbed sharply in 2025, hitting around $1,933 per ounce as of December 19, down just a bit from the prior day but up 28% over the past month and over 114% from last year. This surge comes from tight supply and steady demand, making many wonder if now is the time to hold tight or cash out. Experts point to ongoing shortages pushing prices higher, with forecasts showing deficits through 2025 and a near balance in 2026.
Supply problems are a big driver. South Africa produces about 80% of the world’s platinum, but mines there face old equipment, power shortages, and higher costs from inflation. Total supply for 2025 is expected to drop to a five-year low of around 7.1 million ounces, with mining output down 5%. Recycling and other sources help a little, but not enough to meet needs. Russia’s top palladium maker, which also tracks platinum, sees a 300,000 ounce deficit before investment buying, swelling to 400,000 ounces once bars, coins, and ETFs are added. The World Platinum Investment Council agrees on deficits, forecasting anywhere from 69,200 to 850,000 ounces short this year, marking the third year in a row. For more details, check out their outlook at https://www.ipmi.org/news/balanced-2026-platinum-market-forecast-dependent-trade-tension-let.
Demand stays strong despite some shifts. Cars still use plenty of platinum in exhaust systems, holding above five-year averages even as electric vehicles grow slower than expected. Industrial needs in chemicals and glass are picking up too. Total demand could reach nearly 8 million ounces in 2025. Investors are jumping in, drawn by platinum’s role in green tech like hydrogen fuel cells. China’s new futures contracts on platinum have boosted trading and prices further, with London spot prices up almost 20% in dollars since late November. See price charts and history at https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/platinum.
Prices started 2025 at $910 an ounce and peaked near $1,779 in mid-December, a 94% jump that beat gold. On December 18, it touched $1,974, and technical analysts see it breaking past $1,800 toward $2,000 soon. Some predict an average of $1,770 by year-end 2025 and up to $2,340 in 2026. Russia’s producer and others call it a solid long-term bet due to mine limits and green energy demand. Wave analysis from FxPro suggests buying, with resistance at $2,000 next. Current lease rates stay high, signaling tight stocks. For bullish forecasts, visit https://www.phoenixrefining.com/blog/russia-s-largest-palladium-producer-sees-platinum-deficit-this-year and https://fxpro.news/tech-analysis/platinum-wave-analysis-17-december-2025-20251217/amp/.
Trade tensions and U.S. policy add uncertainty. Threats of tariffs have spurred stockpiling in China, tightening markets more. Fed comments on lower rates if jobs weaken have helped the rally too. While 2026 might see a small surplus of 20,000 ounces, stocks won’t rebuild much, keeping conditions tight.
Sources
https://www.phoenixrefining.com/blog/russia-s-largest-palladium-producer-sees-platinum-deficit-this-year
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/platinum
https://www.ipmi.org/news/balanced-2026-platinum-market-forecast-dependent-trade-tension-let
https://fxpro.news/tech-analysis/platinum-wave-analysis-17-december-2025-20251217/amp/
https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/gold-price-news/platinum-gfex-palladium-121720251
https://thormetalsgroup.com/resource/december-12-2025-why-a-structural-deficit-and-hydrogen-economy-could-boost-platinum/
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_aAAWSLhoTY