Above-ground platinum stockpiles are the visible and vaulted physical holdings of platinum outside of mine production that can be drawn on to meet demand, and they play a central role in how tight or loose the platinum market feels at any time[2][6].
Why above-ground stocks matter
– They provide short-term supply liquidity when annual mine and recycled supply fall short of demand, helping to smooth price shocks[1].
– When those stocks fall to low levels, markets can move sharply because there is little buffer to absorb deficits[6].
– Exchange and warehouse flows shifting between regions (for example, into US CME-approved warehouses) change where metal is physically available and can create localized tightness even if global totals look larger[2][3].
What counts as above-ground stockpiles
– Vaulted holdings and private inventories held by manufacturers, traders, and investors. The WPIC excludes ETF holdings from its “above-ground stocks” year-end cumulative estimate but treats exchange stocks (warehoused metal serving as futures collateral) as visible inventory[2].
– Exchange warehouse stocks reported on platforms such as the CME or LME are a subset of visible above-ground stocks and are closely watched because increases or draws there are verifiable and market-moving[2][3].
Recent trends and why they mattered (2023–2025)
– Multiple years of supply deficits have depleted above-ground buffers, leaving only a few months of demand coverage in some analyses and amplifying the impact of subsequent deficits[6].
– Large flows into US exchange-approved warehouses in 2025 materially changed reported visible stocks, with CME warehouse stocks rising sharply during the year even while analysts described London as short metal, a sign that regional relocation can tighten prompt availability where it matters[2][1].
– Reduced recycling and elevated investment demand contributed to deeper deficits and drew metal out of inventory cushions[3][2].
Market signals that show tightness
– Backwardation in forward curves—where near-term prices are higher than later delivery prices—signals prompt physical tightness in major trading hubs[1][6].
– Rising physical lease rates indicate holders are unwilling or unable to lend metal, which tightens available supply for industrial users and traders[2][6].
– Strong premiums or exchange-for-futures flows into particular warehouses show where metal is being concentrated for trading or to satisfy margin and collateral needs[2][5].
How above-ground stock estimates can be misleading
– Some buffers are hidden or miscounted: industrial users’ precautionary inventories, private hedge stocks, and metal used as collateral may not appear in public tallies, causing a gap between apparent and usable supply[4][5].
– Regional shifts (for example, flows from London into the United States) can make global numbers look healthier while specific markets remain tight[1][3].
– ETF holdings are treated differently by different analysts; their flows can both reveal investor demand and temporarily remove metal from commercial circulation[2][3].
Implications for users and investors
– Industrial consumers (automotive catalyst makers, chemical producers, hydrogen equipment manufacturers) face higher supply risk and potentially higher short-term costs when above-ground buffers are low[6].
– Investors and traders watch exchange stocks, lease rates, and forward curve shapes because these are practical indicators of physical tightness that can precede rapid price moves[1][2].
– Policy and strategic stockpiling (for example, a country treating platinum as a critical mineral) can change long-term dynamics by converting commercial stock into strategic holdings that are less likely to be released into the market[5].
Practical metrics to monitor
– Exchange warehouse stocks (CME, LME) for inflows and outflows[2].
– Lease rates for platinum metal and physical premiums between locations[2][6].
– ETF inflows and outflows for investor-driven demand[3].
– Forward curve structure (backwardation vs contango) in major centers like London and New York[1][2].
Sources
https://platinuminvestment.com/files/954835/WPIC_Platinum_Quarterly_Q3_2025.pdf
https://www.ipmi.org/news/platinums-80-surge-3-hidden-forces-driving-it
https://investingnews.com/wpic-platinum-market-forecast/
https://shanakaanslemperera.substack.com/p/the-platinum-singularity-how-the
https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/chinas-strategic-critical-mineral-classification-of-platinum-its-investment-implications-for-global-pgm-supply-pricing-and-emerging-developers