Europe is bracing for another energy crisis due to a combination of factors including reduced gas supplies, increased demand during colder winters, and ongoing geopolitical tensions that have disrupted traditional energy flows. The situation is complicated by declining domestic gas production, lower pipeline imports, and challenges in balancing electricity grids amid a transition to renewable energy sources.
One of the main reasons Europe faces renewed energy stress is the sharp decline in natural gas imports, especially pipeline gas from Russia. Over the past few years, pipeline gas imports have fallen dramatically, from 104 billion cubic meters (bcm) in the winter of 2021/2022 to just 62 bcm in 2024/2025. This reduction is largely due to geopolitical developments that have strained relations and supply agreements. Although liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports have increased somewhat, rising from 43 bcm to 55 bcm in the same period, this has only partially offset the loss of pipeline gas. At the same time, domestic gas production in the EU continues to decline steadily, from 17 bcm in 2021/2022 to 12 bcm in 2024/2025, increasing dependence on external sources[2].
Demand pressures have also intensified, particularly due to colder-than-average winters. The 2024/2025 winter saw below-average temperatures that led to a significant rise in gas consumption for heating—about 16 bcm more than the previous winter. This surge in demand, combined with reduced supply, has created a tight market balance and heightened the risk of shortages[2].
Electricity markets have been affected as well. Gas-fired power plants often set the marginal price for electricity in wholesale markets, so when gas prices spike, electricity prices follow immediately. This dynamic has led to costly power for consumers and windfall profits for low-carbon generators like nuclear, hydro, and renewables, whose costs remain stable. Governments have responded with various measures such as retail price caps and tax cuts to shield consumers, but these have often been costly and have not fully addressed the underlying market pricing mechanisms[1].
The Iberian Peninsula experienced a notable electricity grid crisis in 2025, with Spain’s grid operator warning of potential blackouts due to abrupt voltage variations linked to sudden changes in renewable generation and the grid’s response capabilities. This incident highlighted vulnerabilities in integrating renewables and maintaining grid stability. Spain and Portugal had a major blackout in April 2025 affecting 60 million people, caused by overvoltage and the grid’s inability to absorb sudden power losses. The grid operator has since requested urgent technical changes and operational adjustments to prevent a repeat of such events[4].
Despite these challenges, some countries like Germany have maintained relatively stable and reliable electricity grids. In 2024, Germany’s power supply disruptions decreased in average duration, showing resilience amid the energy transition. The country’s grid is considered one of the most reliable in Europe, with disruptions resolved faster than in previous years. However, experts warn that even stable systems must prepare for unexpected shocks as the energy landscape evolves[5].
The broader context includes Europe’s ongoing shift away from fossil fuels, which has led to a historic decline in coal and gas power generation. In 2024, fossil fuel generation in the EU fell to its lowest level in over forty years, with coal and gas power dropping by 16% and 6% respectively. This transition reduces carbon emissions but also requires careful management to ensure energy security, especially when renewable sources can be intermittent[3].
In summary, Europe’s energy crisis risk stems from a complex interplay of reduced gas supplies due to geopolitical tensions, increased demand from colder winters, challenges in electricity grid stability amid renewable integration, and the structural decline of domestic fossil fuel production. These factors combine to create a precarious energy supply situation that governments and grid operators are actively trying to manage through policy measures, technical upgrades, and market reforms.