Platinum is currently experiencing a significant and persistent supply deficit that has lasted for three consecutive years, with no clear end in sight. This means that the amount of platinum being produced globally is consistently falling short of the demand for it. The gap between supply and demand has been so large that it is steadily depleting above-ground stockpiles—those reserves held outside of mines, such as in investment vaults or industrial inventories.
One major reason for this ongoing deficit lies in production challenges, especially in South Africa, which produces about 80% of the world’s platinum. Issues like energy shortages and rolling blackouts have disrupted mining operations there, limiting how much platinum can be extracted. Additionally, there are no significant new mines coming online to boost supply anytime soon. Recycling rates remain low as well, so secondary sources aren’t filling the gap either.
On the other side of the equation, demand for platinum continues to rise across several sectors: automotive (particularly catalytic converters), jewelry—especially growing interest from China—and industrial uses including emerging technologies. Even investment demand has picked up recently as investors anticipate price increases amid tightening supplies.
Because these deficits are structural rather than temporary—meaning they stem from fundamental imbalances rather than short-term disruptions—the depletion of above-ground stocks could happen within just two to three years if current trends continue unchecked. Once those inventories run low enough, prices may face strong upward pressure as buyers compete over limited physical metal.
In essence, how long these deficits can last depends largely on whether new sources of supply emerge or if recycling improves significantly to meet rising needs. Without such changes soon, we could see a prolonged period where platinum remains scarce relative to demand—a scenario likely to push prices higher until market balance returns through either increased production or reduced consumption growth.
The situation suggests we may be approaching a tipping point where platinum’s rarity becomes more widely recognized by markets and industries alike—a shift that could redefine its value after years spent overshadowed by other precious metals like gold.