Platinum is gearing up for a strong multi-year bull market in 2025, driven by a mix of tight supply and growing demand that’s reshaping its outlook. After years of price stagnation, the fundamentals now point to a significant shift favoring platinum’s value.
One of the biggest factors behind this bullish trend is the ongoing supply deficit. In 2025, newly mined platinum production is expected to drop by around 6%, reversing previous growth trends. This decline means there won’t be enough new metal coming into the market to meet demand. On top of that, recycling—which usually helps supplement supply—is struggling to bounce back to past levels and currently accounts for only about a quarter of total platinum supply. The result? A projected shortfall nearing one million ounces this year alone, marking the third straight year where demand outpaces supply.
This persistent deficit has started eating into above-ground inventories—those reserves held outside active use—tightening availability even further. With less metal sitting idle in vaults or waiting to be recycled, buyers face more competition for every ounce available.
Demand itself is also shifting in ways that support higher prices over time. China stands out as a key player here; its imports have surged recently with April 2025 seeing over six tonnes brought into the country—the highest monthly figure in more than a year. This reflects growing interest not just from industrial users who need platinum for applications like catalytic converters but also from investors and jewelry markets eager to tap into this precious metal.
Global economic uncertainty adds another layer supporting platinum’s rise. While growth forecasts have softened due to trade tensions and geopolitical shifts, these conditions often push investors toward metals seen as safe stores of value or strategic industrial materials—roles platinum fits well alongside gold and silver.
All these elements combine into an outlook where annual deficits averaging around 700,000 ounces could persist through at least 2029. Such sustained shortages typically lead markets higher as buyers compete amid limited supplies.
In essence, with shrinking mine output, weak recycling flows, rising Chinese demand, and tightening inventories worldwide—all set against an uncertain global economy—platinum’s fundamentals are aligning strongly for several years of price gains ahead starting now in 2025.