The outlook for platinum in the second half of 2025 looks quite strong, driven by a combination of persistent supply shortages and rising demand. The market has been experiencing significant deficits for several years now, with 2025 expected to mark the third consecutive year where supply falls short of demand by a large margin. This ongoing shortfall is projected to average around 9-12% of total demand annually through at least 2029, which is substantial enough to keep prices supported and potentially push them higher.
One key factor behind this deficit is constrained supply. Platinum production faces challenges, especially in South Africa—the world’s largest producer—where mining difficulties and limited recycling capacity restrict how much metal can enter the market. Additionally, there are no major new mines coming online soon that could ease these constraints. On the other hand, demand continues to grow steadily across several sectors: automotive (particularly catalytic converters), jewelry (with notable growth in China), industrial uses, and investment interest.
Price-wise, platinum has already seen a sharp rise this year—up about 40% since January—outpacing gold and silver gains during the same period. This surge reflects investors responding to dwindling above-ground stocks combined with geopolitical uncertainties affecting global trade patterns. Some analysts suggest that platinum may be nearing a tipping point where prices could spike further due to these structural imbalances.
However, history shows that platinum prices can be volatile after such spikes; past peaks have often been followed by rapid declines within months or years. Despite this potential volatility risk, current market conditions—with sustained deficits and growing demand—make platinum an attractive asset for investors looking beyond traditional safe havens like gold.
In summary, while economic uncertainties remain globally, the fundamentals supporting platinum’s price appear robust going into the latter half of 2025: ongoing supply shortages paired with expanding demand create an environment ripe for continued price strength or even further upward surprises in this rare precious metal’s market landscape.