Platinum is facing a serious supply shortage that looks set to continue for several years. The market has been in a structural deficit, meaning demand consistently outpaces supply, causing stocks to shrink year after year. In 2023 and 2024, the platinum market saw deficits close to or exceeding 900,000 ounces annually. For 2025, forecasts predict another large shortfall of around 727,000 to nearly 850,000 ounces. This marks the third straight year of significant undersupply.
The main reason for this ongoing deficit is declining mine production combined with strong demand growth. Mining output is expected to drop by about 6% in 2025 compared to previous years—the lowest level since around 2020—largely due to reduced mining activity in South Africa, which dominates global platinum production. Recycling rates are also down, further tightening supply.
On the demand side, interest from investors and industries remains robust. Chinese imports of platinum surged dramatically in early 2025 as buyers sought alternatives amid high gold prices and increased purchases of platinum bars and jewelry rose sharply. Additionally, growing use of platinum in hybrid vehicle manufacturing adds steady industrial demand.
Because above-ground stocks are shrinking fast—expected to fall by about a quarter in one year alone—they now cover less than four months’ worth of global consumption at current rates. If these deficits persist without any major changes on either supply or demand fronts, inventories could be effectively depleted within three years.
This situation creates strong upward pressure on prices as the market struggles to balance itself naturally through available stockpiles alone. Prices have already responded with gains over twenty percent so far this year as investors anticipate tighter conditions ahead.
In short: Platinum’s supply deficit isn’t just a temporary blip but rather an embedded imbalance driven by fundamental factors unlikely to resolve quickly. Unless new sources come online or recycling improves substantially—and given current trends that seems unlikely—the shortage will last at least through the rest of this decade with potentially dramatic effects on price and availability worldwide.