Platinum is facing a serious supply shortage in 2025 that could shake up the market in a big way. Experts predict a deficit of around 900,000 ounces this year, meaning demand will outstrip supply by nearly a million ounces. This marks the third year in a row that platinum has been undersupplied, creating what’s called a structural deficit—a long-term imbalance where there simply isn’t enough platinum being produced to meet global needs.
Why does this matter? When supply falls short for several years running, it starts eating into the stockpiles of platinum held above ground. These reserves are shrinking fast and could drop below 2.5 million ounces by the end of 2025—enough to cover only about two to three years of consumption at current rates. If deficits continue like this, those inventories might be exhausted within just three years.
The main reason for this shortage is falling mine production, especially from South Africa which is the world’s largest producer. Mining output is expected to decline by about 4-6% in 2025 due to operational challenges and lower recycling rates adding less secondary supply back into the market.
On top of tightening supply, demand for platinum is rising sharply—particularly from China. Chinese investors have been snapping up more platinum bars, coins, and jewelry as they look for alternatives while gold prices remain high. Platinum imports into China surged dramatically earlier this year with monthly volumes hitting their highest point in over twelve months.
This combination of falling mine output and surging demand creates strong upward pressure on prices. Already in 2025, platinum prices have jumped over 20%, reaching levels not seen in two years.
Because these shortages are structural—not just temporary glitches—they signal that price increases may be sustained or even accelerate until new sources come online or demand eases significantly.
In essence: The looming deficit means fewer ounces available than buyers want or need worldwide; stockpiles are dwindling fast; mining can’t keep pace; and eager buyers—especially from China—are pushing prices higher right now. All these factors together set the stage for potential shocks across markets tied to platinum throughout 2025 and beyond as scarcity drives value upward sharply until balance returns—or inventories run dry altogether.