Platinum has been making waves in 2025, showing a strong upward trend that’s catching the attention of investors and market watchers alike. After a slow start in 2024, platinum prices have surged by over 20% this year, reaching levels not seen in two years. This rally is driven by a mix of supply shortages and growing demand, especially from China.
One key factor pushing platinum prices higher is the ongoing supply deficit. For the third year running, there simply isn’t enough platinum being produced to meet global demand. The World Platinum Investment Council predicts a shortfall of around 848,000 ounces for 2025. Mining output has dropped mainly because South Africa—the world’s largest producer—is producing less than before. Recycling rates are also down, which means fewer old platinum items are being melted down and put back into circulation.
At the same time, physical stockpiles of platinum are shrinking fast. Above-ground reserves are expected to fall by about 25%, leaving only enough to cover less than four months of global consumption. This tightness in supply naturally puts upward pressure on prices.
On the demand side, China is playing an increasingly important role. In April alone, Chinese imports jumped dramatically—by nearly half compared to March—to reach their highest monthly level in a year at about 10 metric tons. Chinese buyers are snapping up more platinum bars, coins, and jewelry as they look for alternatives to gold amid its high price levels.
Looking at price forecasts for this year gives us some perspective on whether hitting $1,600 per ounce is realistic or not. Most current predictions suggest that while platinum will continue climbing steadily through 2025—reaching somewhere between $1,100 and $1,150 per ounce—it might not quite hit $1,600 just yet within this calendar year.
For example:
– Some analysts expect mid-2025 prices around $1,134 per ounce with modest gains toward year’s end.
– Longer-term forecasts see more dramatic increases beyond 2026 when prices could rise above $1,400 or even approach $2,800 within five years.
– There’s even speculation that over the next decade or so platinum could surpass gold significantly due to persistent deficits and rising industrial use.
So why might $1,600 be too optimistic right now? The main reason is that although supply constraints and demand growth support higher prices overall—and there’s potential for big jumps—the market usually moves gradually rather than suddenly jumping hundreds of dollars within months without major shocks like geopolitical events or huge shifts in industrial usage.
That said:
If mining disruptions worsen unexpectedly,
If Chinese investment surges further,
Or if new uses for platinum emerge rapidly (like increased adoption in green technologies),
Then breaking through the $1,600 mark before year’s end could become possible.
In summary: Platinum’s fundamentals look very strong heading into late 2025 with solid gains expected from current levels thanks to tight supplies and robust demand growth—especially from China—but crossing the psychological barrier of $1,600 per ounce may require additional catalysts beyond what we currently see unfolding this year alone.